Local Investment Score and Rating – We calculate a Score and assign a Rating for the risk of investing in real estate or mortgages in local markets, based on five economic factors: population growth; job growth; unemployment; changes in home prices; and whether the market is over-priced.
12-Month Forecast; 2-Year Forecast; 3-Year Forecast – MSA and county level
Equilibrium Home Price – The extent to which actual prices are higher than the Equilibrium Home Price is a measure of how much adjustment will eventually take place and a measure of the risk that actual home prices will fall.
Peak Quarter – The year quarter with the highest recorded actual home price value
Peak Change – The % change in home values from the peak quarter value to the current value
12 Month Home Price Change – % change in home values in the last 12-months
Actual Home Price – Actual average home Price in the market
Valuation – % difference between EHP and Actual home prices (how over/under valued is the market)
Risk Adjusted Cap Rates
Local Market Risk Premium – Premium that can be used to adjust cap rates for market risk, based on home price forecast. Our forecast is based on the observation that changes in prices are caused both by economic forces and a predictable cycle related to the inefficiency of price adjustments.
Current Monthly Rent – Based on the annual American Community Survey, with quarterly updates forecasted based on inflation, pressure from jobs, and pressure from home prices.
Rent to Home Price Ratio – Ratio of Rents to Actual Average Home Prices, also defined as Gross Rent Yield
And Economic Data including:
Single and Multi-Family Housing Permits
Employment By Industry