Economic Outlook

To help our customers better understand current market conditions and projections, Local Market Monitor provides periodic analyses of national economic trends and their impact on real estate markets. This analysis, developed by Ingo Winzer, reflects his view on the current outlook for the national economy.


National Economic Outlook

07.23.2019 Ingo Winzer

Month-to-month changes in economic statistics usually tell us nothing about where the economy is headed, there's too much variability. But a six month comparison might be enlightening at a time when the economy seems to be slowing.

 

In January, the total number of jobs in the economy was up 2.0 percent from the previous year - this happened to be the high-spot of growth in the last couple of years. In June, that growth was 1.5 percent.

 

What accounts for the drop, especially since jobs in healthcare - one of the biggest sectors of the economy - actually did better in June? Most important, business services did worse: the change from 2.5 percent in January to 2.2 in June is meaningful because the category includes so many jobs. There was also a slowdown of growth in restaurants, finance, retail, manufacturing and - somewhat ominously - construction.

 

Whether commercial or residential, construction projects take time and money, and developers won't start a new one if they think future demand will be weak - which usually means they're having trouble selling their existing product.

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