Frequently Asked Questions

How frequently are the market reports updated?

A: The forecast is published on a quarterly basis with monthly revisions. The following is a schedule of when the updates & revisions will be published:

Chart Maintenance Schedule Date Published
Revision January 1, 2018
Revision February 1, 2018
Forecast of Q1 2019 March 1, 2018
Revision April 1, 2018
Revision May 1, 2018
Forecast of Q2 2019 June 1, 2018
Revision July 1, 2018
Revision August 1, 2018
Forecast of Q3 2019 September 1, 2018
Revision October 1, 2018
Revision November 1, 2018
Forecast of Q4 2019 December 1, 2018
Revision January 1, 2019

What if I purchase a market report and it is close to the date the report is set to be updated?

A: When you purchase a market report, you will get access to the report for 7 days with your username and password. If there is an update that takes place during that time, you will have access to the updated report as well. You can print, download and save the report information for reference after your 7 day access period.

How do you define a market?

A: We cover 315 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA's). The MSA's are classified by the US Census Bureau. We do not cover state, zip code or neighborhood level markets.

What cities are covered under each Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) that you cover?

A: The US Census Bureau outlines what cities are covered under each MSA: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/metro-micro/geographies/geographic-reference-files.html

What time period does your forecast cover?

A: We forecast home price changes one, two and three years into the future.

How do you measure the accuracy of your forecast?

A: Each market report shows the actual and forecasted results for each quarter from Q1-2005 to present. The reports of historical accuracy use the initial forecast published. The revisions in the two following months are usually very minor unless there are dramatic changes in the job situation in a local market, and even then they're not large.

How are actual home prices for a market calculated?

A: FHFA does not publish actual price data for markets, just the index numbers. We determine the actual average home prices for the markets we cover by analysis of raw HMDA data [all mortgage originators are required to submit data on all mortgage applications; we extract sales information from those applications that resulted in home purchases.] For some markets, we use home price information collected by the Census.

Why do you forecast home values to increase in some markets when they are overpriced based on the Equilibrium Home Price?

A: The fact that a market is over or under-priced doesn't automatically tell us if home prices will go up or down, just whether there is more or less risk. Home prices in many Florida and California markets increased for years even though the markets were already severely over-priced.

What is a Business Growth Report?

A: The Local Market Monitor - Business Growth Report - was developed to provide branch managers and business bankers much needed information about which industries in their market area are growing the fastest so that they can focus their sales efforts on the hottest prospects. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Market Monitor has identified each industry in a specific market area using NAICS codes, ranked the industries according to payroll growth and outlined which banking products companies in each industry should be using. Updated quarterly and downloadable through Excel - this report should be used by every banker looking to focus their sales efforts on the best opportunities.

What are your purchase options?

A: Local Market Monitor covers over 300 housing markets throughout the US. Our market reports are updated monthly and contain home price forecasting, Equilibrium Home Price market risk analysis, local residential capitalization rates, peak to trough analysis, as well as other key market metrics. Each report provides a complete historical view of home prices. We make it easy for you to quickly gain insight into home value trends through our powerful reports, graphs and analysis.

Single Market Purchase

$199

Annual Access to Single Market

$594/year

Subscription

Contact Us
for quote

Access to home price
forecast model

1 market 1 market 315 markets

Access to the Equilibrium
Home Price risk
assessment model

1 market 1 market 315 markets

Historical market
performance data

1 market 1 market 315 markets

Monthly updates to
forecast and Equilibrium
Home Price models

NO Yes Yes

Market data including:
annual change in home
values, monthly job
growth rates, housing
permits, vacancy rates,
unemployment rates,
employment by industry

1 market 1 market 315 markets

The ability to sort markets
by key metrics & compare
them side by side

NO NO Yes

The ability to download
key metrics & chart data

Yes Yes Yes

Ongoing customer
support and expertise

Yes Yes Yes

Unlimited access &
usernames for the
department

NO NO Yes

Home Price Calculator

NO NO Yes

Smaller Market Briefs

NO NO 61 markets
Local Capitalization Rates Yes Yes Yes
Portfolio Forecasting NO NO Yes
Portfolio Scenario Forecasting NO NO Yes

What inputs do you use to develop your forecast?

  1. The most recent home price data.
  2. The most recent - and our forecast of - job growth.
  3. Our general forecast of demand for homes.
  4. The price volatility of individual markets.
  5. Price cycle dynamics, including the Income Price.

Do you consider housing inventory - why / why not?

A: Implicitly we do in our general forecast of demand, which we set lower in markets with lots of vacant units (recently in Florida markets).

Otherwise we don't because there is no reliable estimate of inventory for our 320 markets (the Census data are always at least a year old).

What do the results mean? (explain how it applies to an individual home /market)

A: Unlike stocks for example, the price of homes doesn't vary sharply from year to year. So a Strong market is likely to remain Strong for several years - demand will exceed supply. And vice versa for a Weak market.

You would have a better chance of making a good investment (in a home, a mortgage, or a rental property) in a Strong market. Good investments can also be made in a Weak market, but the risk is much higher.

Is the forecast cumulative?

A: We forecast for individual years and also cumulatively. Because of the uncertainty of all home price data, the cumulative forecast is best for identifying Strong and Weak markets.

What makes the forecast for one market better than the next? (key drivers of the forecast)

A: What influences our forecast the most are the actual change in prices in the past year, and the current rate of local job growth.

What are the differences in the forecast for MSA's, counties and zip codes?

A: The county forecasts depend on the forecast for the MSA they are in, modified by differences in population growth and job growth.

The zip forecasts depend on the forecast for the county they are in, modified by differences in population growth. (No job data are available.)

Why do you only have a 3 year forecast for zip codes?

A: As the area for which you forecast gets smaller, the reliability of the forecast gets weaker. At the zip code level, our goal is to show if a zip code area is likely to be superior or inferior over the next few years.

At the zip code level, there is also no way to reliably measure actual annual results. The data from the Census are multi-year averages.