As the area for which you forecast gets smaller, the reliability of the forecast gets weaker. At the zip code level, our goal is to show if a zip code area is likely to be superior or inferior over the next few years.
At the zip code level, there is also no way to reliably measure actual annual results. The data from the Census are multi-year averages.
What are the differences in the forecast for MSA’s, counties and zip codes?Jen Rhoton2020-03-03T15:24:51+00:00
Unlike stocks for example, the price of homes doesn’t vary sharply from year to year. So a Strong market is likely to remain Strong for several years – demand will exceed supply. And vice versa for a Weak market.
You would have a better chance of making a good investment (in a home, a mortgage, or a rental property) in a Strong market. Good investments can also be made in a Weak market, but the risk is much higher.
Do you consider housing inventory – why / why not?Jen Rhoton2020-03-03T15:22:15+00:00
The Local Market Monitor – Business Growth Report – was developed to provide branch managers and business bankers much needed information about which industries in their market area are growing the fastest so that they can focus their sales efforts on the hottest prospects. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Market Monitor has identified each industry in a specific market area using NAICS codes, ranked the industries according to payroll growth and outlined which banking products companies in each industry should be using. Updated quarterly and downloadable through Excel – this report should be used by every banker looking to focus their sales efforts on the best opportunities.
Why do you forecast home values to increase in some markets when they are overpriced based on the Equilibrium Home Price?Jen Rhoton2020-03-03T15:20:30+00:00
The fact that a market is over or under-priced doesn’t automatically tell us if home prices will go up or down, just whether there is more or less risk. Home prices in many Florida and California markets increased for years even though the markets were already severely over-priced.
How are actual home prices for a market calculated?Jen Rhoton2020-03-03T15:19:56+00:00
FHFA does not publish actual price data for markets, just the index numbers. We determine the actual average home prices for the markets we cover by analysis of raw HMDA data [all mortgage originators are required to submit data on all mortgage applications; we extract sales information from those applications that resulted in home purchases.] For some markets, we use home price information collected by the Census.
How do you measure the accuracy of your forecast?Jen Rhoton2020-03-03T15:19:05+00:00
Each market report shows the actual and forecasted results for each quarter from Q1-2005 to present. The reports of historical accuracy use the initial forecast published. The revisions in the two following months are usually very minor unless there are dramatic changes in the job situation in a local market, and even then they’re not large.
What time period does your forecast cover?Jen Rhoton2020-03-03T15:18:38+00:00
The price range is back-calculated from the actual number of renters in each zip code at different rents. The top and bottom of the range are where the number of renters quickly decreases. In some zip codes the range includes about half of all renters, in some up to three quarters.
Why are there fewer Investors Metro Analysis reports than Market Reports?Jen Rhoton2021-04-08T12:21:45+00:00
When you purchase a Market Report, you will get access to the report for 7 days with your username and password. If there is an update that takes place during that time, you will have access to the updated report as well. You can print, download and save the report information for reference after your 7 day access period.
How frequently are the Market Reports and Investors Metro Analysis reports updated?Jen Rhoton2022-01-03T21:32:18+00:00