Economic Outlook2020-11-03T18:32:16+00:00

Economic Outlook

Request the most recent Economic Outlook.

To help our customers better understand current market conditions and projections, Local Market Monitor provides periodic analyses of national economic trends and their impact on real estate markets. This analysis, developed by Ingo Winzer, reflects his view on the current outlook for the national economy.

National Economic Outlook

November 16th, 2021|

November 16, 2021 Most of us thought the pandemic would have a deep but temporary effect on the economy, that our medical ingenuity would allow us to control and eventually defeat the virus and then [...]

National Economic Outlook

October 14th, 2021|

October 14, 2021 The economy continues to improve, although at such a slow rate that we'll be lucky to just get back to zero by the end of the year - the number of jobs that existed before the pandem [...]

National Economic Outlook

September 14th, 2021|

September 14, 2021 The latest data on home prices show an incredible surge in almost all markets across the country. This can't be explained through economic growth or population growth or income gro [...]

National Economic Outlook

August 13th, 2021|

August 13, 2021 The economy continues to improve but apparently not fast enough to bring jobs back into positive territory by the end of the year. There are still 4 million fewer jobs than before cov [...]

National Economic Outlook

July 14th, 2021|

July 14, 2021 Although the pandemic is still with us - now with the delta variant - most covid restrictions around the country have been lifted and economic activity is rapidly resuming. This means t [...]

National Economic Outlook

June 21st, 2021|

June 21, 2021 Measured by retail spending, the recession was over several months ago. Just the idea that vaccinations will end the pandemic was enough to end the cautious behavior of consumers. It's [...]

National Economic Outlook

May 17th, 2021|

May 17, 2021 As more and more people are vaccinated and as more states allow businesses to open, it's a good time to think about the longer-term fall-out from the pandemic, both nationally and for in [...]

National Economic Outlook

April 19th, 2021|

April 19, 2021 Maybe there will be a faster recovery now that many people are being vaccinated, but that improvement hasn't yet shown up in the economic data. The report that the economy added 900,00 [...]

National Economic Outlook

March 22nd, 2021|

March 22, 2021 Although the US economy does a little bit better every month, it's still well below the pre-pandemic level. Most importantly, 10 million people who lost their job still haven't found a [...]

National Economic Outlook

February 11th, 2021|

February 11, 2021 The latest job figures suggest very strongly that a real economic recovery won't take place this year. The recovery of jobs we've seen since last April has hit a limit because most [...]

National Economic Outlook

January 15th, 2021|

January 15, 2021 The latest job figures and health bulletins give us a bit more insight into the dynamics of the pandemic. The slow improvement of the job situation has come to a halt as covid infect [...]

National Economic Outlook

December 14th, 2020|

December 14, 2020 Way back in April, when the coronavirus hit and many states shut down, the number of jobs in the economy dropped 13 percent - 20 million people. As the months went by that number re [...]

National Economic Outlook

November 13th, 2020|

November 13, 2020 It looks like the economy is getting better but the recession will still be with us well into 2021. The good news that covid vaccines may be highly effective means that we can see a [...]

National Economic Outlook

October 12th, 2020|

October 12, 2020 In April, the number of jobs in the economy sank an unheard of 13 percent compared to last year. By July the loss was 'only' 7.7 percent and the possibility of a further quick recove [...]

National Economic Outlook

September 10th, 2020|

September 10, 2020 New data from the second quarter of 2020 show that the average home price was up 4 percent in the past year, the lowest increase since 2013. Prices were already slowing before the [...]

National Economic Outlook

August 18th, 2020|

August 18, 2020 As we get more actual data about the economy it's possible to see where real estate markets may be headed. It now looks to me that we're in a holding pattern that can easily persist f [...]

National Economic Outlook

July 21st, 2020|

July 21, 2020 The slowing of consumer spending (which accounts for 70 percent of the economy) is usually a leading indicator for a recession. For this recession there was no lead time at all; spendin [...]

National Economic Outlook

June 10th, 2020|

June 10, 2020 Unexpectedly, the job data for May did not show a worsening of the recession. Compared to the 13 percent loss of jobs in April (from the same month a year ago), the loss in May was 12 p [...]

National Economic Outlook

May 11th, 2020|

May 11, 2020 We can now see the depth of the current recession. In April, the total number of jobs in the economy was down 13 percent. And because that estimate is based on mid-month data, we can be [...]

National Economic Outlook

March 12th, 2020|

March 12, 2020 Although I'll quote the latest data on jobs (from February) events have already overtaken the statistics. The spread of the corona virus threatens to have a dramatic effect on the US e [...]

National Economic Outlook

February 15th, 2020|

February 15, 2020 The corona epidemic in China is disrupting manufacturing for many products and will cause companies to rethink their supply chains. A wholesale transplantation of manufacturing jobs [...]

National Economic Outlook

January 17th, 2020|

January 17, 2020 Retail sales for 2019 were up 3.6 percent from 2018. With inflation running around 2 percent, that means a real increase of 1.6 percent or so. Car sales were good and on-line sales w [...]

National Economic Outlook

December 26th, 2019|

December 26, 2019 The US economy is more and more concentrated in a very few very large urban centers, and not just because of the tech boom. Despite the fact that the internet now allows individuals [...]

National Economic Outlook

October 24th, 2019|

October 24, 2019 The number of jobs in September was up 1.4 percent from last year, a repeat of August and a confirmation that the August data weren't an outlier. It's now most likely that we'll see [...]

National Economic Outlook

September 23rd, 2019|

September 20, 2018 I've been harping about consumer debt for a while now because I think it will cause the next recession. It won't trigger it, that will be some unrelated event, but all of a sudden [...]

National Economic Outlook

September 10th, 2019|

September 10, 2019 The number of jobs in August was up just 1.4 percent from last year, the smallest increase in the last two years, and down significantly from the 2 percent rate of January. Any fur [...]

National Economic Outlook

August 15th, 2019|

August 15, 2019 The data on Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter are as unenlightening as always. The 2.1 percent annualized growth over the first quarter was a combination of heavy consumer [...]

National Economic Outlook

July 23rd, 2019|

July 23, 2019Month-to-month changes in economic statistics usually tell us nothing about where the economy is headed, there's too much variability. But a six month comparison might be enlightening at [...]

National Economic Outlook

May 16th, 2019|

May 16, 2018 Like most people, I'm most confident talking about an economy that produces physical things like airplanes or soybeans or TV shows, or even data. I'm less sure when it comes to financial [...]

National Economic Outlook

May 13th, 2019|

May 13, 2019 Measured by Gross Domestic Product, the economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter, after growing at a 2.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. If you do away [...]

National Economic Outlook

February 20th, 2019|

February 20, 2019 The government shutdown affected most of the agencies from which we get data for our monthly commentaries, so this month we're just providing the basics. Next month we'll have a ful [...]

National Economic Outlook

January 22nd, 2019|

January 22, 2019 The economy is always changing, even though economists routinely pretend the data from one period can be directly compared with data from another. Some of the interesting changes can [...]

National Economic Outlook

November 25th, 2018|

November 25, 2018 The Gross Domestic Product is one way of looking at the economy. It includes consumer spending, what companies invest in new equipment and buildings, changes in business and farm in [...]

National Economic Outlook

October 23rd, 2018|

October 23, 2018 After the wrenching ups and downs of real estate markets over the last ten years, it's fair to ask where we are now. Home construction can give us a partial answer. Back in the boom [...]

National Economic Outlook

August 14th, 2018|

August 14, 2018 I normally don't pay much attention to the Gross Domestic Product. I'm not an economist and how you can accurately estimate the output of as large and complicated an economy as the US [...]

National Economic Outlook

July 24th, 2018|

July 24, 2018 Manufacturing is no longer the engine of the US economy, like it was 50 years ago, but it's had a rebirth of sorts over the last few years as companies in America find they can produce [...]

National Economic Outlook

June 20th, 2018|

June 20, 2018 While the monthly jobs data tell us how the economy is doing overall, it's also worthwhile to see in what ways it's been changing. We're used to the idea that manufacturing jobs have di [...]

National Economic Outlook

March 22nd, 2018|

March 22, 2018 One reason a lawyer might pay off a porn star with a home equity line rather than a credit card is that interest rates on credit card balances are very high, around 15 percent at a time [...]

National Economic Outlook

February 14th, 2018|

February 14, 2018 Measured by Gross Domestic Product the economy grew 2.3 percent in 2017 - better then 2016, not as good as 2015. As usual, the spending of individuals was 80 percent of economic act [...]

National Economic Outlook

January 16th, 2018|

January 16, 2018 One of the bright spots of the economy is the financial sector. For the last several years jobs in finance increased at a steady pace of almost 2 percent per year; there are now almo [...]

Schedule your demo today!

We look forward to speaking with you at a time that is convenient for you.

SCHEDULE
Go to Top