Local Market Monitor Press Release

Local Market Monitor Announces Release of Third Quarter Home Price Forecast for Largest US Markets

Real estate forecasting solution identifies Top 10 and Bottom 10 housing markets for both the large and small Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) also releases National Economic Outlook

CARY, NC – September 9, 2009 – Local Market Monitor, the premier real estate forecasting solution, today released its latest Home Price Forecast, covering well over 300 US local markets. The forecast, which predicts local market behavior over the next 12 months, identifies markets where home prices will continue to drop as well as stable markets with opportunities for growth.

According to the forecast, among the largest US markets—identified as those with populations greater than 600,000—the 10 markets with the best expected performance in home price are:

Baton Rouge, LA
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Columbia, SC
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
Pittsburgh, PA
San Antonio, TX
Syracuse, NY

These top markets, where home values are expected to remain level, are among those markets that did not have a big housing boom and have had relatively small job losses over the past year. Home prices in these areas are generally below the US average and reflect where the recession has so far had a relatively mild impact. Dallas, San Antonio and Omaha have all experienced a 1.6 percent job loss over the past year, and jobs have actually increased in Baton Rouge.

"While home building activity nationally is down 35 percent from last year, some of our top markets are doing relatively better,” said Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor. “Building permits were off only 20 percent in San Antonio and Omaha, and they were up 10 percent in Buffalo."

The 10 largest markets with the worst expected performance in home price are:

Fresno, CA
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 
Bakersfield, CA 
Stockton, CA
Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL and Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL

These markets, which are expected to have the largest declines in home values over the next year, are also among those that previously had the biggest price booms. This was attributed in large part to speculative buying, including the repercussions of inflated housing construction on the local job market and investor portfolios.

"Right now, a good market is still one where home prices aren't going down,” said Ingo Winzer. “However, this will change as the recession eases. Next year we'll see good price increases in many markets."

To see the Top 10 and Bottom 10 markets for the 215 smaller MSAs covered by Local Market Monitor, click here.

Local Market Monitor also recently released its latest National Economic Outlook, which comments on the overall predicted behavior of the US economy and national housing industry. According to the summary:

  • Investors can expect to see an average 5 percent drop in home prices nationally over the next year, including double-digit decreases in large markets like Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas.
  • Delinquency rates are 9 percent on mortgages and 8 percent on commercial real estate loans, a percentage expected to climb rapidly.
  • Healthcare is the only sector of the economy that’s currently growing, where 300,000 jobs have been added.

To read the full report, click here.

About Local Market Monitor
Local Market Monitor, the premier real estate forecasting solution, offers investors in homes and home mortgages the local market risk intelligence they need to make better decisions. Using a proprietary formula called the Equilibrium Home Price, Local Market Monitor determines if markets are currently over or under valued, equipping users with a long-term risk and investment perspective. Covering over 300 local markets, Local Market Monitor also presents key investors with a 12-month home price forecast. The solution includes sorting capabilities allowing subscribers to view and compare real estate markets along various metrics. Local Market Monitor is based in Cary, NC and has provided expertise in evaluating residential property values since 1990. To learn more, visit www.localmarketmonitor.com.

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