ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Over twenty years of proven expertise and trend analysis in evaluating residential property values. |
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Frequently Asked QuestionsHow frequently are the market reports updated? A: The forecast is published on a quarterly basis with monthly revisions. The following is a schedule of when the updates & revisions will be published:
How do you define a market? A: We cover 315 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA's). The MSA's are classified by the US Census Bureau. We do not cover state, zip code or neighborhood level markets. What cities are covered under each Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) that you cover? A: The US Census Bureau outlines what cities are covered under each MSA: http://www.census.gov/population/www/metroareas/lists/2007/List2.txt What time period does your forecast cover? A: We forecast home price changes one, two and three years into the future. How do you measure the accuracy of your forecast? A: Each market report shows the actual and forecasted results for each quarter from Q1-2005 to present. The reports of historical accuracy use the initial forecast published. The revisions in the two following months are usually very minor unless there are dramatic changes in the job situation in a local market, and even then they're not large. How are actual home prices for a market calculated? A: FHFA does not publish actual price data for markets, just the index numbers. We determine the actual average home prices for the markets we cover by analysis of raw HMDA data [all mortgage originators are required to submit data on all mortgage applications; we extract sales information from those applications that resulted in home purchases.] For some markets, we use home price information collected by the Census. Why do you forecast home values to increase in some markets when they are overpriced based on the Equilibrium Home Price? A: The fact that a market is over or under-priced doesn't automatically tell us if home prices will go up or down, just whether there is more or less risk. Home prices in many Florida and California markets increased for years even though the markets were already severely over-priced. |
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